EUR/USD news for July 26, 2026
The Euro is being influenced by ECB comments that inflation will return to its 2% target and stronger Eurozone PMI data, though doubts persist. Meanwhile, oil prices are impacting rates more than ECB rhetoric, and the currency faces major cross-asset risks from upcoming central bank meetings (FOMC, BoE, BoJ) and key US and Eurozone data releases.
How the day unfolded
The euro is supported by growing expectations of a September rate hike from the ECB, as policymakers like Simkus express a hawkish bias. The ECB also announced a new repo facility for central banks, signaling ongoing tightening. These developments highlight the ECB's commitment to fighting inflation, which is a key driver for EURUSD.
ECB policymakers this week reiterated a hawkish stance, with comments suggesting a September rate hike is becoming more likely, which could support the euro. However, the central bank also announced details on its enhanced repo facility for central banks, part of its broader policy toolkit.
ECB policymakers have signaled a hawkish bias, with some seeing a September rate hike as highly likely due to rising oil prices and PMI data. This increased probability of further tightening could lend support to the euro by making euro-denominated assets more attractive.
ECB policymakers have signaled a potential rate hike in September, bolstering the euro, while oil price pressures are forcing the Fed's hand, supporting the dollar. These opposing forces are driving EURUSD volatility as markets weigh diverging central bank paths.
The euro fell against the US dollar despite stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMIs, as traders weighed a mixed market outlook. Softer US Treasury yields limited dollar gains ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, leaving EURUSD in a choppy range. Meanwhile, the ECB's ongoing bond wall and oil-driven rate dynamics added to the currency pair's near-term uncertainty.
The euro declined despite stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI data, as softer US dollar yields curbed gains for the greenback ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. A choppy range persists for EURUSD, with oil prices influencing rate expectations more than European Central Bank commentary.
Despite stronger Eurozone PMIs, the euro fell, weighed by broader bearish FX sentiment and market focus on oil-driven rate moves rather than ECB comments. Additionally, the ECB chief economist's reassurance on inflation returning to target did not provide support for the euro.
EURUSD is being influenced by ECB commentary indicating inflation will return to its 2% target, while a CFTC report shows bearish FX conviction. Additionally, Eurozone PMI data came in stronger but with growing doubts about the economic outlook, as oil prices are driving rates more than ECB speak.
The ECB's chief economist reiterated that inflation is on track to return to the 2% target, supporting the euro, but mixed Eurozone PMI data and growing doubts about the economic outlook tempered gains. Meanwhile, broader market focus on upcoming central bank decisions and US economic data kept EURUSD trading within a range, with CFTC data showing bearish FX conviction.
Headlines (24)
- ECB to start implementing enhanced repo facility for central bankswww.ecb.europa.eu · Jul 24, 08:30 UTC
- The devil in the DeTail: assessing state-contingent tail effects of a releasable macroprudential capital buffer using a parsimonious agent-based frameworkwww.ecb.europa.eu · Jul 24, 09:07 UTC
- Dollar: Oil Leaves the Fed with No Choicewww.actionforex.com · Jul 24, 10:51 UTC
- “Still see probability of rate hike higher than hold”: ECB’s Simkus expresses hawkish bias on rateswww.fxstreet.com · Jul 24, 10:56 UTC
- How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?investinglive.com · Jul 24, 10:57 UTC
- European Central Bank: September hike seen as highly likely – Deutsche Bankwww.fxstreet.com · Jul 24, 11:08 UTC
- ECB policymakers reiterate they are not seeing second-round effects, stress data dependenceinvestinglive.com · Jul 24, 11:32 UTC
- European Central Bank: September hike risk rises with oil and PMIs – Commerzbankwww.fxstreet.com · Jul 24, 12:58 UTC
- Decisions taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in addition to decisions setting interest rates)www.ecb.europa.eu · Jul 24, 13:01 UTC
- Bank of Russia lowers dollar exchange rate to 78 rubles for July 25-27tass.com · Jul 24, 15:52 UTC
- Euro: Choppy range view holds against US Dollar – Rabobankwww.fxstreet.com · Jul 24, 16:18 UTC
- Major European indices are closing the day and the week higherinvestinglive.com · Jul 24, 16:23 UTC
- US Dollar: Softer yields curb gains ahead of FOMC – Scotiabankwww.fxstreet.com · Jul 24, 16:39 UTC
- Euro falls even amid strong Eurozone PMIswww.fxstreet.com · Jul 24, 18:34 UTC
- Xeneta Weekly Ocean Container Shipping Market Update: Rates Continue to Softenwww.hellenicshippingnews.com · Jul 24, 21:01 UTC
- investingLive Americas FX news wrap 24 Julinvestinglive.com · Jul 24, 21:41 UTC
- CFTC Report: A split tape; bearish FX conviction, selective covering and a crude reversalwww.fxstreet.com · Jul 25, 13:10 UTC
- Rates Spark: Oil drives rates more than ECB speakthink.ing.com · Jul 25, 14:10 UTC
- Eurozone PMI: stronger data, growing doubtsthink.ing.com · Jul 25, 14:10 UTC
- Bitcoin is now fighting the ECB’s €51.8 billion bond wall for a shrinking pool of capitalcryptoslate.com · Jul 25, 14:10 UTC
- ECB chief economist says inflation will return to 2% targetwww.hellenicshippingnews.com · 17:01 UTC
- Newsquawk Week in Focus: FOMC, BoE, BoJ, US PCE, US GDP, and EZ CPIinvestinglive.com · 20:11 UTC
- Week ahead for traders: FOMC, BoE, BoJ, US PCE and GDP create major cross-asset riskinvestinglive.com · 21:11 UTC
- Early indications for the FX market this weekinvestinglive.com · 21:36 UTC
Scheduled events
As of 23:46 UTC
- 2026-07-27 — German ifo Business Climate · forecast 86.1 · EUR
- 2026-07-27 — Private Loans y/y · forecast 3.1% · EUR
- 2026-07-27 — M3 Money Supply y/y · forecast 3.2% · EUR
- 2026-07-27 — ECOFIN Meetings · EUR
- 2026-07-27 — Durable Goods Orders m/m · forecast 1.6% · USD
- 2026-07-27 — Core Durable Goods Orders m/m · forecast 0.9% · USD
- 2026-07-28 — Spanish Unemployment Rate · forecast 10.7% · EUR
- 2026-07-28 — German Buba Monthly Report · EUR
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.