EUR/USD news for August 9, 2026
The US dollar is facing a tougher period as weak jobs data has surprised markets and cast doubt on the Fed's rate hike path. With September hold odds now leading, expectations for a rate increase are being trimmed, which is putting pressure on the currency pair.
How the day unfolded
The euro surged against the dollar after US non-farm payrolls contracted by 23k, with downward revisions revealing deeper labor market weakness. This unexpected softening has cast serious doubt on Fed rate hike expectations, a key driver for EURUSD. Separately, the euro showed mixed performance against other peers, with gains versus the Canadian dollar but resistance against the pound and yen.
The euro surged against the dollar after US non-farm payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 23k, with downward revisions pointing to deeper labor market weakness. This has cast doubt on further Federal Reserve rate hikes, which typically weighs on the dollar and supports the euro. The EUR/USD pair now faces a key technical hurdle around 1.1560, according to analysts.
The Euro strengthened against the U.S. dollar as a shocking U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report showed a contraction and downward revisions, prompting markets to reverse expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. The weak labor market data cast doubt on the Fed's tightening path, undermining the dollar and supporting the euro, although the single currency also faced technical resistance around 1.1560.
EURUSD is being driven by a surprise contraction in US Non-Farm Payrolls (-23k) and downward revisions that reveal deeper labor market weakness, which reversed expectations of a Fed rate hike in September. This has boosted the euro against the dollar, though the euro's recovery faces a key technical hurdle near 1.1560. Additionally, broader G10 FX commentary highlights a narrow path for a weaker dollar, with geopolitical and policy uncertainties also in play.
EURUSD rose after US Non-Farm Payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 23k, with revisions pointing to deeper labor market weakness. This surprised traders and reversed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, weighing on the dollar. Market sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing uncertainty over US inflation and geopolitical tensions.
Weak US jobs data have raised doubts about further Fed rate hikes, which could weigh on the dollar. Markets are also questioning the Fed's inflation resolve after the July meeting, with upcoming US inflation data likely to be a key driver. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY recovered from lows, but the overall EURUSD outlook remains tied to Fed policy expectations and global uncertainty.
Recent US jobs data surprised to the downside, leading markets to doubt the Fed's plans for further rate hikes. Meanwhile, commentary from the July FOMC raises questions about the Fed's inflation resolve. This uncertainty about US monetary policy is a key driver for EURUSD, as it affects interest rate differentials.
Surprise weakness in US jobs data has cast doubt on further Fed rate hikes, with market odds now favoring a September hold. This shift in Fed expectations is seen as creating a tougher period for the dollar, which is a key driver for EUR/USD. Upcoming US inflation data is also in focus as a factor that could influence these expectations.
Headlines (21)
- US euro sale to prop up yen blindsided European Central Bankwww.ft.com · Aug 7, 01:05 UTC
- Euro steadies against the British Pound following another rejection at the 0.8580 areawww.fxstreet.com · Aug 7, 07:07 UTC
- Euro remains stronger against Canadian Dollar as German Industrial output beats forecastswww.fxstreet.com · Aug 7, 08:04 UTC
- 1.1560: Why the Euro's recovery is facing its biggest technical hurdlewww.fxstreet.com · Aug 7, 10:47 UTC
- How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?investinglive.com · Aug 7, 10:58 UTC
- US Non-Farm Payrolls Contract -23k. Revisions Expose Deeper Labor Market Weaknesswww.actionforex.com · Aug 7, 12:43 UTC
- Euro surges as shocking US NFP reverses Fed September hike expectationswww.fxstreet.com · Aug 7, 13:01 UTC
- EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: US inflation and war doldrums to keep shaping market’s moodwww.fxstreet.com · Aug 7, 15:15 UTC
- Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Inflation Data in Focuswww.wsj.com · Aug 7, 15:40 UTC
- Markets Question Fed's Inflation Resolve After July FOMC Meetingwww.gold-eagle.com · Aug 7, 16:24 UTC
- FX Talking: Caught between war and Warshwww.hellenicshippingnews.com · Aug 7, 17:00 UTC
- EUR/JPY recovers from session low but remains down on Fridaywww.fxstreet.com · Aug 7, 18:49 UTC
- Uncertainty Rules!www.zerohedge.com · Aug 7, 19:26 UTC
- G10 FX Talking: The narrow path to a weaker dollarwww.hellenicshippingnews.com · Aug 7, 21:01 UTC
- Dollar faces a tougher period as Fed expectations may shiftwww.marketpulse.com · Aug 8, 04:24 UTC
- Surprise US job weakness casts serious doubt on Fed rate hikesthink.ing.com · Aug 8, 05:00 UTC
- CFTC Report: FX repositioning dominates as commodities divergewww.fxstreet.com · Aug 8, 14:52 UTC
- US Government Sold $638 Billion of Just T-Bills this Week, 10-Year Treasury Yield Dips after Big Kahuna Yen Interventionwolfstreet.com · 02:27 UTC
- Will US inflation be cool enough to trim bets on a September rate rise?www.ft.com · 11:42 UTC
- Here are the 2 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadwww.cnbc.com · 13:16 UTC
- Fed Hike Bets Crack as September Hold Odds Storm Into Leadnews.bitcoin.com · 17:33 UTC
Scheduled events
As of 23:53 UTC
- 2026-08-10 — Sentix Investor Confidence · forecast -0.7 · EUR
- 2026-08-10 — German Buba Monthly Report · EUR
- 2026-08-10 — Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations · USD
- 2026-08-10 — FOMC Member Hammack Speaks · USD
- 2026-08-10 — German WPI m/m · EUR
- 2026-08-11 — Italian Trade Balance · forecast 4.74B · EUR
- 2026-08-11 — NFIB Small Business Index · forecast 97.8 · USD
- 2026-08-11 — ADP Weekly Employment Change · USD
Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.