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AUD/USD news for September 18, 2026

The Australian dollar has found support as hawkish comments from the RBA, including its commitment to bring inflation down, have kept expectations for further rate hikes in focus, with commentary pointing to a possible 4.85% terminal rate and IMF warnings that oil could force another move. This stance has contrasted with policy developments elsewhere, helping to offset pressure from a hawkish Fed hike and opposite policy surprises from the RBA and Bank of Japan. A retreat in oil loosening the U.S. dollar's grip and a hold around the 100-day moving average were also cited as factors in the recent stabilization.

How the day unfolded

  1. The Australian dollar has moved with shifting expectations around U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes and Reserve Bank of Australia policy, with headlines pointing to weakness after hawkish Fed moves and strength on hawkish RBA comments. Easing oil prices reducing pressure from the U.S. dollar, views that the RBA cash rate may not have peaked, and a defense of the 100-day moving average were also cited in recent price action.

  2. The Australian dollar has been caught between a hawkish Federal Reserve, whose rate hikes have weighed on the pair, and hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia signals, including comments from Bullock alongside IMF warnings and UBS expectations that oil pressures could require further hikes toward a 4.85% terminal rate. More recently, a retreat in oil has loosened the U.S. dollar's grip while buyers defended the 100-day moving average, helping the pair find a floor.

  3. The Australian dollar has been moving around competing signals from the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia. A hawkish Fed rate hike pressured the pair by supporting the US dollar, while hawkish RBA comments and discussion that the cash rate may not have peaked provided a counterweight. Oil price moves have also played a role, with a retreat in oil described as loosening the US dollar's grip.

  4. The Australian dollar has been moving on competing central bank signals, falling after hawkish Federal Reserve rate hikes while finding support from hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia comments about bringing inflation down. Expectations that the RBA cash rate may not have peaked, with warnings that oil prices could force another hike, have also featured in recent moves alongside shifts in the U.S. dollar's strength.

  5. The Australian dollar has been moving on contrasting central bank signals from the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Hawkish Fed rate hikes have weighed on AUD/USD by supporting the U.S. dollar, while hawkish RBA comments and its reiterated commitment to bringing inflation down have provided offsetting support, with discussion that the cash rate may not have peaked. A retreat in oil prices has also loosened the dollar's grip, helping the Australian dollar find a floor.

  6. The Australian dollar has been moving on contrasting policy signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve and Australia's RBA. Hawkish Fed rate hikes have pressured AUD/USD at times by supporting the U.S. dollar, while hawkish RBA comments and its reiterated commitment to bring inflation down have helped the Australian dollar find support. Oil prices have also mattered, with a retreat in oil loosening the dollar's grip and warnings that oil could force another RBA hike keeping rate expectations in focus.

  7. The Australian dollar has moved with shifting RBA and Fed policy signals, strengthening on hawkish RBA comments and its reiterated commitment to bring inflation down while also reacting to the Fed entering hike territory. A retreat in oil prices loosened the U.S. dollar's grip and helped the Aussie find a floor after sliding. Debate continues over whether the RBA cash rate has peaked, with the IMF warning oil could force another hike and UBS seeing two more hikes to a 4.85% terminal rate.

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