EUR/USD news for July 31, 2026

Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in July, keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to consider further policy moves. ECB officials stressed a data-dependent approach, while analysts point to the US-Iran conflict as a key factor influencing the September rate decision. These developments are driving the euro's movement against the dollar.

Updated 19:35 UTC

How the day unfolded

1. 01:34 UTC

   ECB's Patsalides said rate hikes in projections don't obligate the ECB, suggesting policy flexibility, while the BoE left rates unchanged and noted no second-round effects. Meanwhile, US-Iran geopolitical tensions and concerns about the dollar's long-term value add uncertainty. These factors are relevant for EURUSD as they influence relative monetary policy expectations and risk sentiment.

2. 16:35 UTC

   Eurozone inflation rose to 2.9% in July, while geopolitical risks from a potential US-Iran conflict are shaping expectations for ECB policy, with officials stressing a data-dependent approach. The ECB also published its latest bank stress test and interest rate statistics, adding to the mixed data backdrop for the euro.

Headlines (14)

• ECB's Patsalides: Rate hikes in ECB projections don't obligate us
  investinglive.com · Jul 29, 09:22 UTC
• Swiss Franc: Policy gap favours further losses against Euro – MUFG
  www.fxstreet.com · Jul 29, 09:34 UTC
• BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 3.75% in July meeting, as expected
  investinglive.com · Jul 30, 11:02 UTC
• BoE Governor Bailey: No evidence of second-round effects; cannot draw too much comfort from this
  investinglive.com · Jul 30, 12:12 UTC
• Gold and FX Drive VT Markets to $8 Trillion H1 Trading Volume, Up 212%
  www.financemagnates.com · Jul 30, 12:45 UTC
• US-Iran war looms over Britain’s economy
  www.politico.eu · Jul 30, 14:19 UTC
• Claudia Buch: Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
  www.bis.org · Jul 30, 14:30 UTC
• The Federal Reserve Has Eroded 97% of Your Dollar’s Value Since 1913. Here’s the Mechanism.
  goldsilver.com · Jul 30, 21:21 UTC
• EUR/JPY rallies further above 185.00 against Japanese Yen after BoJ’s policy decision
  www.fxstreet.com · 03:21 UTC
• Euro area bank interest rate statistics: June 2026
  www.ecb.europa.eu · 08:02 UTC
• European Central Bank: September hike path shaped by Iran war – Nomura
  www.fxstreet.com · 08:11 UTC
• ECB publishes results of 2026 geopolitical risk reverse stress test
  www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu · 09:01 UTC
• Eurozone inflation rises to 2.9% in July
  www.ft.com · 09:19 UTC
• ECB’s Kocher: Central bank policies will remain data-dependent
  www.fxstreet.com · 09:28 UTC

Scheduled events

As of 22:35 UTC

• 2026-07-31 — French Prelim CPI m/m · forecast 0.3% · EUR
• 2026-07-31 — German Unemployment Change · forecast 5K · EUR
• 2026-07-31 — Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y · forecast 2.4% · EUR
• 2026-07-31 — Italian Prelim CPI m/m · forecast 0.3% · EUR
• 2026-07-31 — CPI Flash Estimate y/y · forecast 2.9% · EUR
• 2026-07-31 — Employment Cost Index q/q · forecast 0.8% · USD
• 2026-07-31 — Chicago PMI · forecast 55.9 · USD
• 2026-07-31 — Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment · forecast 53.9 · USD